96, joined Oct. 2012
|here we go for the spin of a life time
the gallup poll still lying still hasn't contacted me
karl rove flack dominates their figures
the figures i see are those in the early voting booths
and the intrade odds that remains obama ahead with a
20 point spread and now sandy comes in to complicate
things excuse me for saying this is but
an order from god to get something right
america i'm going to make this election an
apocalypse for you of course i'm kidding
this is truly not for the light hearted but it
will be for the romney departed bye romney bye
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69, joined Jul. 2011
|This election is very close.
Nate Silver is still predicting a significant Obama win in the electoral college and less than 1% in popular vote.
My concern is whether or not 'the President will be able to govern with the GOP being so entrenched in their ideology. We seem to be living in a party over country era.
[Edited 10/30/2012 7:06:59 PM ]
se rencontrerfr molark
96, joined Oct. 2012
|Here's where Silver is today (Tuesday) from an Ezra Klein Washington Post article -
"it’s worth being clear about exactly what Silver’s model — and that’s all it is, a model — is showing. As of this writing, Silver thinks Obama has a 75 percent chance of winning the election. That might seem a bit high, but note that the BetFair markets give him a 67.8 percent chance, the InTrade markets give him a 61.7 percent chance and the Iowa Electronic Markets give him a 61.8 percent chance. And we know from past research that political betting markets are biased toward believing elections are more volatile in their final weeks than they actually are. So Silver’s estimate doesn’t sound so off.
"Moreover, Silver’s model is currently estimating that Obama will win 295 electoral votes. That’s eight fewer than predicted by Sam Wang’s state polling meta-analysis and 37 fewer than Drew Linzer’s Votamatic."
And you're right about the supporting cast. I hope we hold the Senate and think we will. Gains or losses in the House will let us know the mantra size of the opposition.
The phenomenon of Sandy is certainly unique. It squashes out some of the negativity and, if anything, provides more op for the President to present a constructive and positive view. Nothing could have predicted the it. I had expected Romney to make essential gaffs as the time closed, but instead it was the President. And now this hurricane? Incredible.
Perhaps more incredible is that this race was not supposed to be anything at all close, that we are looking at the effect of money, TV and mass stupidity.